Forget Gold—Trump’s BRICS Tariff Could Trigger a Platinum & Palladium Price Surge

On Friday gold spot price rose above $2,800 for the first time in history—a major milestone. But while everyone’s busy watching gold, there’s a setup brewing in two lesser-known metals that could make gold’s rally look modest: platinum and palladium.

These aren’t your typical safe-haven plays. They’re thinly traded, highly volatile, and their supply chains are fragile. But with recent geopolitical tensions heating up, these metals might be on the verge of explosive moves.

Trump’s BRICS Tariff Threat—A Potential Catalyst

Donald Trump recently dropped this bombshell in a post on Truth Social:

Will Trump actually impose 100% tariffs on BRICS nations? Maybe, maybe not. But if he does, the impact on platinum and palladium could be seismic.

When you realize where these metals come from, the potential price shock becomes clear.

High-Risk, High-Reward Play

Platinum and palladium aren’t like gold and silver. They’re niche markets with razor-thin inventories and fragile global supply chains.

This isn’t about long-term wealth preservation. It’s a high-risk, high-reward play.

• Low probability event: A full-blown BRICS tariff might not happen.

• High-impact outcome: But if it does, prices could skyrocket.

Think of it as a stacker’s lottery ticket—one that’s tied to geopolitical chaos.

The 2022 Palladium Spike—A Lesson in Volatility

Need proof of how fast these metals can move? Look back at March 2022.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, palladium prices exploded to over $3,400 per ounce—an all-time high.

Why? Russia is the world’s largest palladium producer. Fears of supply disruptions sent the thinly traded palladium market into overdrive.

This is exactly the kind of reaction we could see if Trump’s tariff threats turn into reality.

Technical Setup: Platinum & Palladium on the Edge

The charts are setting up for something big.

• Platinum is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle—a classic technical pattern that often leads to sharp breakouts.

• When markets squeeze like this, it doesn’t take much to trigger a major move.

• Palladium has been crushed since its 2022 highs, but the downtrend might be bottoming out.

• A breakout above the long-term resistance line could unleash a powerful rally—especially with geopolitical catalysts in play.

The Supply Crunch: South Africa & Russia Hold the Keys

Here’s the real kicker:

• Russia and South Africa dominate global production of both platinum and palladium.

• A 100% tariff on BRICS would effectively choke off supply from these major producers.

It’s simple supply and demand. Cut off supply, and prices spike.

COMEX Inventories—Shockingly Small

Let’s talk numbers.

• Palladium COMEX Inventory: 38,531 oz

• Platinum COMEX Inventory: 391,028 oz

• Gold COMEX Inventory: 30,980,466 oz

That’s not a typo. There’s more gold sitting in COMEX vaults than platinum and palladium combined—by a factor of nearly 80x.

This is why even small supply disruptions can trigger massive price swings in these metals.

Catalytic Converter Demand Surprise

There’s another wrinkle:

With EV mandates being rolled back, internal combustion engines aren’t going away anytime soon. That means more cars needing catalytic converters, which rely heavily on both platinum and palladium.

This shift could drive unexpected demand for these metals—something the market hasn’t fully priced in yet.

The Bigger Picture: Geopolitics, De-Dollarization & BRICS

Ironically, tariffs like the one Trump is threatening could backfire—pushing BRICS nations even further away from the U.S. dollar and accelerating de-dollarization.

While that’s bullish for gold and silver, the real fireworks could happen in platinum and palladium—where supply chains are fragile, inventories are tiny, and price reactions are extreme.

Final Thoughts

Although they make up a small part of my overall stack, I do hold some physical platinum and palladium bullion. With looming supply chain disruptions and global trade wars, and possibly even a 100% tariff on their primary producers, the upside potential in platinum group metals is simply too great for me to leave them entirely on the sidelines.

But what about you? Are you stacking platinum or palladium?

Hit me up at x.com/stacksmarter and let me know.

Disclaimer:
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. The opinions expressed are based on personal analysis and are not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any financial assets. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Investing in precious metals and other commodities involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.